Rwandan Rebels Advance on Bukavu Raising Fears of Extended Occupation in Eastern Congo

Just days after capturing a strategic hub in Congo's eastern region, Rwandan-backed rebels are advancing on another major city to the south, sparking fears that they are preparing for a prolonged occupation of a vast swath of the mineral-rich country.

The M23 rebels, heavily supported by Rwandan troops and weaponry, are turning their sights on Bukavu, a city of more than a million people. By Wednesday evening, the M23 fighters were reportedly more than halfway to their target, seizing several towns along the way.

The Rwandan-backed militia captured the city of Goma in a swift assault last weekend, despite sporadic resistance from United Nations peacekeepers, a military contingent from three southern African countries, Romanian military contractors and the Congolese army. Bukavu, the capital of South Kivu province, is about 180 kilometres south of Goma.

Rwandan troops, meanwhile, were reportedly massing at a site on the Rwandan side of the border near Bukavu, raising the spectre of a two-pronged assault on the city, which is much more poorly guarded than Goma had been. Hundreds of troops from neighbouring Burundi are in the region and could attempt to defend Bukavu.

By capturing Bukavu, the Rwandan-backed forces would complete their takeover of the two biggest cities of North Kivu and South Kivu, the provinces that contain some of the world's largest sources of critical minerals - including coltan, a key element in the supply chain for computers and cellphones.

A report by UN experts has already estimated that the M23 rebels are earning USD 800,000 in monthly revenue by controlling the coltan trade at a single district of North Kivu. By capturing Goma, a city of two million people, the militia has dramatically increased its control of key border crossings and mineral smuggling routes into Rwanda, which has recently reported a massive increase in its coltan exports.

Before the Goma assault, UN reports estimated that Rwanda had sent up to 4,000 troops across the border to bolster M23 in its three-year offensive in eastern Congo, and the number may have increased since then. Rwanda also deployed sophisticated rockets, electronic warfare devices, and other advanced weaponry to ensure that the rebels would outgun their enemies, the UN said.

The Rwandan-backed militia might not be satisfied with capturing the biggest cities in eastern Congo. The head of its political wing, Corneille Nangaa, has told journalists that the militia's true objective is Congo's capital, Kinshasa, about 2,500 kilometres to the west.

Western governments have repeatedly demanded a halt in M23's attacks and the withdrawal of Rwandan troops from eastern Congo, but the demands have not been backed by any sanctions, aid cuts, or other measures to force Rwanda to take them seriously.

For years, Rwandan President Paul Kagame has made himself highly useful to Western governments by deploying his powerful army on UN peacekeeping missions and on specific assignments to fight extremists or to protect resource extraction projects in Africa, and this usefulness has largely insulated him from Western pressure tactics.

Over the past several weeks, the Rwandan-backed rebels tightened their siege of Goma and pushed increasingly close to the city, bypassing the defensive lines set up by UN peacekeepers and South African troops.

In their final assault on Goma, the rebels killed 13 South African soldiers and an unknown number of Congolese soldiers, but the heaviest price was paid by the city's civilian population. Hundreds suffered gunshot and shrapnel injuries, some were sexually assaulted, and hospitals were crowded with casualties, humanitarian agencies said.

The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) said it has treated more than 600 injured people - including about 300 women, children and other civilians - at its medical sites around Goma since the beginning of this month. Dozens of people have been killed at a camp for people who were displaced by earlier fighting, it said.

The conflict in Goma has had a "devastating impact" on the civilian population, the ICRC said in a statement this week. One hospital was so overcrowded that injured people were lying on the floor, it said.

Another humanitarian agency, Médecins Sans Frontières, said a bullet had pierced the roof of a hospital operating theatre in Goma while surgery was being performed. Stocks of equipment and medicine have been looted, and a health worker was wounded by a gunshot in his home, the agency said.

Even before the latest offensive, the M23 attacks had forced millions of people to flee their homes, triggering a humanitarian catastrophe across the region. A further 658,000 people were displaced from their homes over the past three months, the UN says.

In the Goma battle, many homeless families had to abandon their makeshift shelters on the outskirts of the city, with some of them forced to move for the fourth or fifth time in recent weeks.

"The situation in Goma is extremely grave and further complicating a humanitarian situation that was already beyond dire," said Jean Francois Basse, a senior official of the UN's children's agency, UNICEF.

"People have been exposed to traumatic events, and they are hungry, thirsty and exhausted," he said in a statement. "Electricity, water and internet have all been cut. It's hard to overstate how deeply children and their families are suffering."