Doug Ford to Call Early Provincial Election Amid Risks and Uncertainties

Doug Ford has made his intentions clear: he will call a provincial election on Wednesday, two-and-a-half years into the mandate Ontarians gave him in June 2022 with 41 per cent of the popular vote and an 83-seat majority.

Ford is courting disaster. He is poised on the precipice of repeating the greatest blunder in Ontario political history: foisting an unnecessary and unwanted early election on an unconvinced and skeptical electorate. He is at dire risk of Ontario emerging from his folly in a weakened position and turning off many of his own supporters.

Ford has been frogmarched to this ledge by two forces: the self-interested opportunists in his caucus and cabinet greedy for four more years of job security and power, and the geniuses in his backroom, who can't get past the shallow topline of their polling data and insist the time will never be better to lock in another mandate.

Ford has displayed some solid instincts in his political career, but by calling this election now, he is defying history, common sense -- and probably his own gut.

The "reason for going" Ford spelled out for Tory donors in Markham on Tuesday night has two pillars, both anchored in sand. He proposes to hit the campaign trail claiming he needs a new, strengthened mandate to "send a message" to U.S. President Donald Trump that Ontarians back robust tariff countermeasures, and to obtain public support for tens of billions of dollars in economic relief spending.

It's a far-fetched rationale light on the ring of truth, unlikely to stand voters' sniff test and tailor-made for unintended consequences.

Trump has zero interest in whether Doug Ford's government holds its current 79 or all 124 of Ontario's seats. But he will be sure to take note if Ford's early-election dice-roll yields an even slightly weakened majority, or worse.

Can even the smartest of political geniuses predict exactly how the four-week election campaign will unfold? Ask David Peterson, whose 50 per cent lead in the polls in 1990 convinced him to call an early election "to protect the province in the event of a national crisis" -- an election that ended up being won by Bob Rae's NDP.

Has Ford looked in the mirror and asked himself if calling this election is really worth that risk? What if he emerges from this adventure with a weakened majority? A minority? Or what if his gambit results in -- gasp! -- a change of government? What message will that send south about public support for tariff countermeasures and spending big to protect Ontarians? These risks are real.

The Tory backroom knows full well that its base believes it already gave Ford a strong mandate through June 2026. Will notoriously waste-averse Conservatives warm to dropping up to $175 million on an early election to confirm what they've already decided? Justifying to his own faithful the cost of this trip to the polls will be Ford's first hurdle in this race -- but not his highest.

Far more deeply flawed is Ford's claim that he needs a new mandate to support spending tens of billions of dollars to insulate the province from Trump's America-first protectionism -- because that's not really what he'll be seeking from voters. To spend tens of billions, Ford first needs to raise tens of billions.

Unless Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy has discretely installed a money-printing press in the basement of the Frost Building, Ford will need to ask voters, including tax-hating Ford Nation, to support new "revenue tools" -- aka, taxes, or massive deficit financing -- to fill and refill the war chest that will enable Ontario to weather the gathering economic storm.

Does Ford genuinely believe he can persuade his parsimonious base that tens of billions in new taxes or deficit is a good thing? Can he convince fiscal conservatives to fund a massive new social and corporate welfare program that may help their neighbours, but may not help them -- and to show their support by actively getting out and voting for it?

Odds are that, like unenthusiastic supporters of the U.S. Democratic ticket in November, unconvinced Ontario Tories will show their disquiet not by taking their support elsewhere, but simply by staying home on voting day.

Equally perilous for Ford are the issues of timing and a perceived power gap. When Trump levies his threatened 25 per cent tariff on Saturday, Ford will suddenly find himself torn between slogging along the campaign trail and donning the Captain Canada cape he clearly loves. Can he do the former effectively and the latter legitimately when by definition he's seeking a mandate? Or will his performance in both roles suffer, along with the results he delivers?

Ford, his caucus and cabinet, and his backroom brain trust are convinced their reported 46 per cent polling number and roughly 25 per cent lead over both Bonnie Crombie's Liberals and Marit Stiles' NDP provides plenty of cushion to work with in this race. But right out of the gate, history and human nature will deliver Ford a strong dose of unwelcome reality: when the words election, early, unwanted and unnecessary commingle, voters push back.

Within a week, the Tories' vaunted support among decided voters will shrink toward the 30s. And in the most classic of unintended consequences, by going to the polls Ford will instantly elevate and legitimize the two opposition leaders, whose anonymity and near-invisibility to date has been the key driver of their poor polling performance. Should one or both of Crombie and Stiles gain serious traction, all bets are off.

These are the perils Ford weighed for weeks as he perched with his toes on the edge, staring into the electoral abyss. It's now too late for him to step back, strap in and resign himself to working for the next 18 months with the mandate he has in hand. He is taking the plunge -- and the election Ford believes is gift-wrapped for him may prove to be a booby-trapped package that blows up in his face.