Asteroid 2024 YR4 Impact Risk Increases for December 2032
NASA has increased the projected impact risk of asteroid 2024 YR4 for December 22, 2032, which now stands at 2.2 per cent, but the chances of missing Earth remain high.
We're probably still safe from this space rock, but at the moment, the chances of having a very bad encounter in 2032 have gone up!
A predicted close encounter with asteroid 2024 YR4 in late December 2032 looks to be getting even closer.
Last week, it was reported that, shortly after its discovery, a newfound 'city-killer' asteroid named 2024 YR4 had rocketed to the top of NASA's asteroid impact risk list. At the time, NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) had the odds of this small space rock impacting with Earth as 1.3 per cent, or about a 1 in 77 chance, for December 22, 2032.
As of February 7, those odds have increased. According to both NASA and the European Space Agency, they now sit at 2.2 per cent, or a 1 in 45 chance of impact.
The Earth Impact Risk Summary for 2024 YR4 shows a 2.2 per cent chance of impact on Dec. 22, 2032, along with five other close approaches with far lower chances. Since several different orbits are calculated for the object, due to uncertainties in its path, each of these six entries represents one specific calculated path that intersects with Earth. Sigma VI reflects how close that particular impact orbit is to the object's most likely orbit (closer to zero = greater threat), Palermo scale gauges overall impact risk, while Torino scale represents the risk based on potential damage (with higher number = worse risk for both). (NASA CNEOS)
These chances are still quite low. As shown above, a 2.2 per cent chance of an impact is still a 97.8 per cent chance of a miss.
In fact, based on NASA's calculations, the most likely closest approach with 2024 YR4 on December 22, 2032 will be at a distance of 120,137 kilometres. That's a completely safe pass at about one-third of the distance to the Moon. The asteroid's farthest close-approach distance on that day is over 900,000 km away, which is over twice the distance to the Moon.
However, due to the potential damage caused by an asteroid impact, any object with any level of risk is worth keeping an eye on. With at least one of 2024 YR4's possible orbits resulting in a direct strike on Earth, astronomers are collecting as many observations of this space rock as they can to refine its orbit and determine just how much of a threat it truly represents.
