China advances nuclear fusion capability with Mianyang facility
Satellite images show that China is constructing a significant nuclear fusion research facility near the southwestern city of Mianyang, according to analysts.
These images reveal an enormous X-shaped building emerging from rocky terrain in southwestern China, signaling China's potential advancement in harnessing this futuristic energy source.
Experts suggest it may also indicate an increase in nuclear weapons development.
Decker Eveleth, an analyst at the US-based CNA Corporation, has monitored this facility for years. In 2020, images released by a US official highlighted various potential Chinese nuclear sites, including the one near Mianyang in Sichuan province.
Originally described as "a patch of dirt," according to Eveleth, construction at the site accelerated after the cessation of Covid-related shutdowns. This project is specifically identified as a "laser fusion" facility through contract documents reviewed by both Eveleth and CNN.
If the facility is indeed a laser facility, it provides a unique opportunity to study materials under extreme conditions. It enables scientists to create "pressures that are typically found in the center of stars or in nuclear weapons," said Brian Appelbe, a research fellow at the Centre for Inertial Fusion Studies at Imperial College London.
Eveleth explained that the satellite image's four large arms are "bays" capable of directing lasers toward a central tower, which contains a target chamber with hydrogen isotopes. The laser energy fuses the hydrogen, producing a burst of energy in a process called ignition.
Nuclear fusion presents the appealing prospect of abundant, clean energy without the issue of long-lived radioactive waste found in current nuclear fission technology. Countries and companies globally are competing to master this energy source.
Inside the National Ignition Facility at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in California, significant breakthroughs have been made. In 2022, scientists achieved a successful nuclear fusion reaction that resulted in a net energy gain, marking an important advancement in efforts to replicate the reaction which powers the sun.
Industry experts believe this new facility in China indicates that the nation is becoming serious about fusion energy. According to Melanie Windridge, CEO of Fusion Energy Insights, "They are being decisive, moving quickly, and getting things done."
Estimates suggest that China’s Mianyang research center will be about 50% larger than the US's National Ignition Facility, potentially becoming the largest facility of its kind in the world. Its size may offer benefits, allowing for higher pressures and more compressed materials, which could enhance energy output from nuclear fusion experiments. However, experts caution that achieving a successful fusion experiment remains "extremely challenging," even with larger lasers.
CNN sought comments from China’s Ministries of National Defense and Science and Technology but received no reply prior to publication.
Experts point out that the facility could also enhance China’s nuclear weapons research capabilities. Both the US and China are parties to the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, which prohibits nuclear detonations. The energy produced by nuclear weapons is complex to simulate through conventional methods, and laser-ignition fusion facilities can provide crucial insights into the conditions following a nuclear explosion.
William Alberque, a nuclear policy analyst, noted that any country with a facility similar to NIF is likely to bolster confidence and improve existing weapon designs. While the facility might signal that China isn't planning any explosive nuclear tests, it could also enable the development of more advanced weapon designs, including smaller nuclear weapons.
Some analysts suggest that the Mianyang site could evolve into a hybrid fusion-fission facility. Andrew Holland, CEO of the Fusion Industry Association, expressed concern that if this scenario occurs, it would result in advanced Chinese technology that may surpass similar Western facilities.
Regardless, experts agree that the facility is indicative of an ambitious program in China. Although the US currently leads in the fusion race, Holland warns that "China is moving fast" and can transition from concept to completion more swiftly than governmental projects.
Holland emphasized the urgency for the US and its allies to invest, stating, "If they do not, then China will win this race."
