Doug Ford's Path to Victory in Ontario's Upcoming Election

Jaime Watt is the executive chairman of Navigator Ltd. and a Conservative strategist. He is a freelance contributing columnist for the Star.

Ontario is going to the polls in late February to decide which party, and which party leader, will helm the province for the next four years. As we are still early in the campaign, the Star asked four political commentators to weigh in on what each leader needs to do over the coming weeks to give their party a chance at winning.

My editor has asked me to answer a simple question: How can Doug Ford's PCs win -- and win bigger?

I'm not sure I'm best to answer this question. When Mr. Ford and I faced off as leaders of dueling campaigns during the 2010 mayoral election -- he not only beat me, he crushed me.

What's more, the Progressive Conservative leader enjoys a substantial, some would say unsurmountable, lead in the polls.

But here goes.

The temptation will be to frame the ballot question as "Which of the party leaders do you trust to go head-to-head with Donald Trump and win?" That would be a mistake. It would be akin to looking for someone to tame a tornado.

The president is not a rational actor and it is a fool's errand to think that anyone can effectively go toe-to-toe with him. It is a battle you won't win because it is a battle that can't be won.

Rather, if Ford wants to win and win big, then the ballot question needs to be: "Which of the leaders do you trust to protect you, your family and Ontario from the economic shocks of the Trump administration?"

It is framing the question this way that will see the PCs returned to the legislature with a strengthened majority.

And it is a question which is, simply put, a gift to Ford and his campaign.

The chaos that has emerged from south of the border has provoked both fury and fear in Canadians -- including Ontarians -- unlike anything in recent memory.

Ontarians are looking for their leaders to stand up for them, to be sure. Matching tariffs, border-state diplomacy, ad campaigns aimed at American voters, and business-to-business pressure are all necessary tactics. Those deal with the fury.

But the fear must also be addressed. And that's where Ontarians are looking to their own province's leaders to protect them. Because it's not just theoretical macroeconomic shocks that has them worried; rather, it is the price shock of suddenly more expensive gas, groceries and other imported products that has them up at night.

No question, calling an early election is always a risk. But the timing of the political contest comes with a calculated set of strategic advantages for the PCs:

• With Justin Trudeau and the Liberals still in power federally, the PCs can rely on oppositional sentiment toward Trudeau.
• Doug Ford, personally, has never been so popular. Just look at how comfortably he has assumed the face of the "Team Canada" response.
• The PCs have a major cash advantage that will allow them to dominate the airwaves.
• Liberal operatives are distracted by the federal leadership race. Case in point: they've been slow to nominate candidates in key ridings.
• The government's fiscal situation is not going to improve anytime soon -- and economic tensions with the United States won't help. Things might not be great now, but they won't be any better in fifteen months, when Ford would have had to call this election anyway.

Taken together, these factors will undoubtedly be major contributors should the PCs win re-election.

But none will matter as much as Doug Ford's ability to convince Ontarians he is the best candidate not to negotiate with a madman but to protect their pocketbooks from a madman.

Elections aren't won on hypotheticals -- they're won on trust. And right now, Ontarians don't need a leader who promises to "figure it out" when the storm hits. The storm has hit. They want someone who has been through the storm before and knows how to steer the ship.

Doug Ford's path to victory isn't about making Ontarians believe he can tame Donald Trump -- it's about proving he can shield them from the chaos that Trump is likely to spread for four years.

If the Progressive Conservative leader can make that case, this election won't just be a win for the PCs -- it will be a landslide.