NASA Raises Collision Probability for Asteroid 2024 YR4 to 31 Percent

The probability that an asteroid could collide with Earth on Dec. 22, 2032, has been raised to 3.1 percent, according to NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory.

The announcement was made as scientists continue to track the near-Earth asteroid designated as 2024 YR4. The asteroid is estimated to be about 130 to 300 feet wide and 180 feet in diameter.

The space agency's latest assessment, released on Feb. 18, marks the second time NASA has raised the probability in recent weeks.

Asteroid 2024 YR4, which was first reported on Dec. 24, 2024, had a slightly more than 1 percent chance of impacting Earth in 2032 according to the lab at the time.

The network stated in a Jan. 29 alert that if an impact were to occur, damage could extend as far out as about 31 miles from the impact site, according to estimates "on the larger end of the size range."

That's roughly an area the size of Los Angeles County.

The asteroid will remain observable through early April 2025, after which it will become too faint to detect until around June 2028, when its approximate four-year orbit brings it back to within Earth's reach.

The network stated that while the asteroid's impact probability will likely increase throughout 2025, it is also likely to decrease by the end of the year, falling back below the notification threshold of 1 percent, which is typical for most asteroids.

NASA has also emphasized that it is highly likely the asteroid will safely pass by Earth.

"It is possible that asteroid 2024 YR4 will be ruled out as an impact hazard, as has happened with many other objects that have previously appeared on NASA's asteroid risk list," the agency stated in its recent blog post.

NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) is continuously updating its assessments as new data becomes available. "As more observations of the asteroid's orbit are obtained, its impact probability will become better known," the agency wrote.

To better characterize the asteroid, NASA also plans to use its most advanced space telescope, the James Webb Space Telescope, which will observe the asteroid in March to better assess its size, the agency said in its latest announcement.

A spokesperson for NASA's Planetary Defense Coordination Office, Planetary Science, didn't immediately return a request for comment by NTD regarding the recent developments.

NASA's automated Sentry page will continue to provide the latest data and risk assessments for this and other near-Earth objects.